Mainz 05 1-0 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.28
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 29% vs market 24.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.58
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
11%
4.31
X/2
7%
7.49
X/X
13%
4.7
2/1
6%
24.15
2/2
17%
5.61
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.6pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
1.36/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.51
-7% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
378 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 72%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
21.7 Crosses 17.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Augsburg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.92 xG 1.09
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
341 Passes 236
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
27 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 2-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
11.02.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-1 HT 2-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
20.08.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 1-2 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
06.04.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
22.10.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 4-1 HT 3-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
28.02.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
1-0
AWAY Augsburg
2.15 xG 0.98
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
205 Passes 256
68% Pass Accuracy 71%
41 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 squeezed past Augsburg 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 46% of the ball to Augsburg's 54%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.15 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.33 for Augsburg.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Augsburg?

Mainz 05 1-0 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 41%, draw 28%, Augsburg 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
17 Feb 2024
17:30 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin Analysis →
17:30 Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Analysis →
17:30 Darmstadt 98 vs Stuttgart Analysis →
17:30 Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Analysis →
20:30 RB Leipzig vs Mönchengladbach Analysis →