Hoffenheim 0-1 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.61
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.26 — our 26% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.49
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
11%
4.32
X/2
7%
7.79
X/X
7%
4.95
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.3
2/2
17%
5.66
2/X
11%
13.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.3 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -7%
1.78/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.45
-4% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +4%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
428 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 71%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.7 Crosses 19.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Union Berlin
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.43 xG 1.76
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
380 Passes 324
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-2 HT 0-2 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
20.05.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 4-2 HT 2-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
21.01.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-1 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
15.01.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
22.08.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-2 HT 2-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
28.02.2021 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
0-1
AWAY Union Berlin
1.04 xG 1.41
67% Ball Possession 33%
18 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
562 Passes 232
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
37 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin squeezed past Hoffenheim 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hoffenheim at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 67% of the ball to Union Berlin's 33%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.04 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.67 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?

Hoffenheim 0-1 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 45%, draw 25%, Union Berlin 30%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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