Wolfsburg 1-1 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.33
Over 2.5
60%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.49
No
41%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.86
2-3 Goals
35%
1.92
4-5 Goals
29%
2.75
6+ Goals
15%
7.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.44
1/2
9%
21.6
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
7%
7.03
X/2
13%
4.93
X/X
11%
5.56
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
21%
2.72
2/X
7%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.4pp
40%
Under 2.5
39%
+0.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
61%
-0.8pp
59%
BTTS Yes
63%
-4.5pp
41%
BTTS No
37%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 49%
+7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +1%
1.53/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.50
-12% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -9%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 80%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
17.9 Crosses 15.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.52 xG 2.35
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
297 Passes 458
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.09.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
07.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 6-0 HT 3-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
08.11.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
16.04.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 6-1 HT 5-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
27.11.2021 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
24.04.2021 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
1-1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.85 xG 1.40
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
250 Passes 543
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Borussia Dortmund at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 36% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 64%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.85 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Wolfsburg and 3.00 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?

Wolfsburg 1-1 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 32%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
17 Feb 2024
17:30 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin Analysis →
17:30 Mainz 05 vs Augsburg Analysis →
17:30 Darmstadt 98 vs Stuttgart Analysis →
17:30 Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Analysis →
20:30 RB Leipzig vs Mönchengladbach Analysis →