Heidenheim 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.4
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
54%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.79
6+ Goals
14%
7.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
10.6
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
20.6
1/X
6%
18.6
X/1
9%
14.2
X/2
18%
3.61
X/X
12%
6.96
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
27%
1.67
2/X
7%
18.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.6 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
15%
+6.5pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.4pp
54%
Away Win
66%
-11.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.6pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 70%
+76% / +76% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +14%
1.23/2.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/0.96
+87% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +49%
34% Ball Possession 66%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
230 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 543 · 85%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.4
25.0 Crosses 17.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.08 xG 2.33
26% Ball Possession 74%
7 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
192 Passes 708
68% Pass Accuracy 90%
10 Box Touches 40
11 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
05.02.2019 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
1-2
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
261 Passes 496
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen nicked a narrow win over Heidenheim 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Heidenheim had 38% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 62%, shots finished 6-18.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Heidenheim and 2.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Heidenheim 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 22%, draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 54%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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