Karabağ 4-0 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 20 Sep 2024

Karabağ
4-0 HT 3-0
Neftçi PFK
📅20/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2025/2026

Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.29
Draw
19%
5.15
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
5%
2/1
15%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
73%
-7.9pp
19%
Draw
16%
+2.7pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.3pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Karabağ v Neftçi PFK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
2.64/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.16
+41% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
463 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.6

Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
The Meetings
24.04.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-1 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
02.04.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-4 HT 0-3 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
03.03.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-4 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
18.12.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
08.10.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-2 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
02.05.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-4 HT 1-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ ran out comfortable winners over Neftçi PFK 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Karabağ and 0.67 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK?

Karabağ 4-0 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 65%, draw 19%, Neftçi PFK 16%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5
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