Punjab FC 2-1 Odisha FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — India - Super League, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.0
Over 2.5
44%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.61
No
55%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.82
2-3 Goals
35%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.21
6+ Goals
8%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 35% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
46%
+10.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
54%
-10.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.8pp
55%
BTTS No
42%
+12.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Punjab FC EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Odisha FC EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.34/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/0.93
+12% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
263 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
17.0 Crosses 17.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Punjab FC
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Odisha FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.69 xG 1.20
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
231 Passes 578
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.04.2024 Odisha FC Odisha FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Punjab FC Punjab FC HİNSL
26.12.2023 Punjab FC Punjab FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Odisha FC Odisha FC HİNSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Punjab FC
2-1
AWAY Odisha FC
2.27 xG 0.48
30% Ball Possession 70%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 2
160 Passes 452
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Punjab FC vs Odisha FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Punjab FC nicked a narrow win over Odisha FC 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Punjab FC made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Punjab FC had 30% of the ball to Odisha FC's 70%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.27 to 0.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Punjab FC's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Odisha FC led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Punjab FC and 2.00 for Odisha FC.

What was the final score of Punjab FC vs Odisha FC?

Punjab FC 2-1 Odisha FC in the India - Super League on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Punjab FC vs Odisha FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Odisha FC win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Punjab FC 35%, draw 27%, Odisha FC 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Odisha FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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