PEC Zwolle 1-2 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 20 Sep 2024

PEC Zwolle
1-2 HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar
📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.09
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
56%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.29
Over 2.5
64%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.73
No
42%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.66
2-3 Goals
37%
1.91
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
2.86
6+ Goals
14%
8.03
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
9.48
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
20.5
1/X
6%
18.05
X/1
8%
12.8
X/2
20%
3.7
X/X
7%
6.82
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
26%
1.78
2/X
6%
17.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.5 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
16%
+8.3pp
19%
Draw
20%
-0.8pp
56%
Away Win
64%
-7.5pp
36%
Under 2.5
40%
-3.6pp
64%
Over 2.5
60%
+3.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
+4.1pp
42%
BTTS No
46%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PEC Zwolle v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 69%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +4%
1.25/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.14
-14% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +4%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 440 · 83%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.3
16.7 Crosses 18.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5

PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
1W-3D-2L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.06 xG 1.22
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
304 Passes 412
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 32
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.01.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-2 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
24.09.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
10.04.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
30.10.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-2 HT 2-2 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
09.01.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
19.09.2020 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL

PEC Zwolle 1-2 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
1-2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.68 xG 1.44
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 9
397 Passes 368
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar edged past PEC Zwolle 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 52% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 48%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 1.68 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.83 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?

PEC Zwolle 1-2 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 25%, draw 19%, AZ Alkmaar 56%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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