AZ Alkmaar 2-2 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 20 Jan 2024

AZ Alkmaar
2-2 HT 0-0
PEC Zwolle
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.34
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.8
6+ Goals
14%
7.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.58
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
20.55
X/1
23%
3.5
X/2
7%
16.65
X/X
6%
7.5
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.25
2/2
8%
12.7
2/X
8%
20.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.25 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
70%
-11.2pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.6pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+8.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.0pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar v PEC Zwolle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 15%
-5% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
2.28/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.37
-2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -11%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
433 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
36.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
20.7 Crosses 12.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3W-2D-1L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.45 xG 0.88
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
412 Passes 300
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.09.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
10.04.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
30.10.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-2 HT 2-2 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
09.01.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
19.09.2020 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
23.02.2020 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL

AZ Alkmaar 2-2 PEC Zwolle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
2-2
AWAY PEC Zwolle
2.94 xG 1.76
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 3
499 Passes 257
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
47 Box Touches 9
31 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had AZ Alkmaar at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 63% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 37%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 2.94 to 1.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.00 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?

AZ Alkmaar 2-2 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 59%, draw 21%, PEC Zwolle 20%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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