NEC Nijmegen 1-0 Twente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.46
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
53%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.1
Over 2.5
61%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
3.92
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.12
6+ Goals
14%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.58
1/2
7%
22.6
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
7%
7.95
X/2
16%
4.48
X/X
9%
5.06
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
34.0
2/2
31%
2.5
2/X
7%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
26%
-1.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
54%
Away Win
49%
+4.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
44%
-5.0pp
61%
Over 2.5
56%
+5.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.7pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Twente EU Bookmakers 53%
-6% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +2%
0.64/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.96/0.99
-53% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +37%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 77%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.3
15.2 Crosses 22.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Twente
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.99 xG 2.24
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
258 Passes 428
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.11.2023 Twente Twente 3-3 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
12.05.2023 Twente Twente 4-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
07.08.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-1 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
09.04.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-2 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
24.10.2021 Twente Twente 1-2 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
26.04.2019 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 4-0 HT 3-0 Twente Twente HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1-0
AWAY Twente
1.70 xG 0.58
49% Ball Possession 51%
22 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
398 Passes 411
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
39 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Twente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen edged past Twente 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Twente at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 49% of the ball to Twente's 51%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 1.70 to 0.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Twente led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.83 for Twente.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Twente?

NEC Nijmegen 1-0 Twente in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Twente?

Before kick-off our model rated an Twente win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 24%, draw 23%, Twente 54%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Twente) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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