Heracles 1-1 Volendam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 20 Jan 2024

Heracles
1-1 HT 0-1
Volendam
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Heracles vs Volendam Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.1
Over 2.5
60%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.73
No
42%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.84
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.16
6+ Goals
13%
10.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.16 — our 30% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.1
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.65
X/1
16%
3.96
X/2
10%
9.85
X/X
7%
5.43
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.15
2/2
8%
7.4
2/X
9%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.15 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-5.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
+4.5pp
42%
BTTS No
46%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heracles v Volendam — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Volendam EU Bookmakers 23%
+7% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
2.28/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.63
+34% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -25%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
423 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
22.1 Crosses 20.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.2

Heracles vs Volendam Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Volendam
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.65 xG 2.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
291 Passes 301
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.09.2023 Volendam Volendam 2-2 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
20.07.2019 Volendam Volendam 2-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HAZ
24.07.2018 Heracles Heracles 5-2 HT 3-0 Volendam Volendam HAZ
14.03.2009 Heracles Heracles 1-1 HT 0-0 Volendam Volendam HOL
21.12.2008 Volendam Volendam 3-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL

Heracles 1-1 Volendam — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
1-1
AWAY Volendam
1.81 xG 0.41
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
590 Passes 289
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
36 Box Touches 15
31 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Heracles vs Volendam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles and Volendam shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Heracles at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

On the day, Heracles had 65% of the ball to Volendam's 35%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.81 to 0.41.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Volendam led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Heracles and 2.00 for Volendam.

What was the final score of Heracles vs Volendam?

Heracles 1-1 Volendam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs Volendam?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heracles win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Heracles 52%, draw 24%, Volendam 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heracles), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heracles) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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