Erzurumspor FK 2-0 Esenler Erokspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.88
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.05
6+ Goals
8%
18.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 32% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.44
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.85
X/1
17%
4.0
X/2
9%
8.25
X/X
17%
4.54
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
6.71
2/X
7%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 26%
+12% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -44% / -44%
1.38/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.17
+27% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
317 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
20.9 Crosses 14.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
5.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
16.12.2020 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 5-1 HT 3-1 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor TÜK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzurumspor FK
2-0
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
1.66 xG 0.67
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
338 Passes 203
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 6
21 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Erzurumspor FK vs Esenler Erokspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzurumspor FK got the better of Esenler Erokspor 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Erzurumspor FK as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Erzurumspor FK had 60% of the ball to Esenler Erokspor's 40%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.66 to 0.67.

What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Esenler Erokspor?

Erzurumspor FK 2-0 Esenler Erokspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzurumspor FK vs Esenler Erokspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzurumspor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Erzurumspor FK 45%, draw 28%, Esenler Erokspor 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzurumspor FK), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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