Alcorcon 1-1 Juventud Torremolinos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
19%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.0
2-3 Goals
46%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.44
6+ Goals
8%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 27% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
54%
+1.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
19%
Away Win
21%
-2.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alcorcon EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventud Torremolinos EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
350 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alcorcon
1-1
AWAY Juventud Torremolinos
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Alcorcon vs Juventud Torremolinos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alcorcon and Juventud Torremolinos couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Alcorcon at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Alcorcon had 53% of the ball to Juventud Torremolinos's 47%, shots finished 10-11.

What was the final score of Alcorcon vs Juventud Torremolinos?

Alcorcon 1-1 Juventud Torremolinos in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alcorcon vs Juventud Torremolinos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alcorcon win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Alcorcon 55%, draw 26%, Juventud Torremolinos 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alcorcon), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alcorcon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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