Östers 3-4 Varbergs — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 20 Oct 2024

Östers
3-4 HT 2-0
Varbergs
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Sweden - Superettan – 2024

Östers vs Varbergs Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.47
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.4
2-3 Goals
40%
2.0
4-5 Goals
26%
2.68
6+ Goals
11%
6.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.8
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.65
X/1 EV+ ✗
24%
3.88
X/2
9%
12.4
X/X
8%
7.09
2/1
6%
19.55
2/2
9%
8.58
2/X
4%
16.9
Value flag · X/1 at 3.88 — our 24% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
64%
-5.2pp
19%
Draw
20%
-0.8pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Östers v Varbergs — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Östers EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Varbergs EU Bookmakers 20%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.99/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.50
+9% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
438 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Östers vs Varbergs Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Östers
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Varbergs
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.04
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
364 Passes 164
76% Pass Accuracy 64%
27 Box Touches 20
34 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
06.04.2024 Varbergs Varbergs 1-2 HT 1-1 Östers Östers İSÇ2
24.02.2024 Varbergs Varbergs 1-4 HT 1-2 Östers Östers İSÇK
13.11.2022 Varbergs Varbergs 2-1 HT 1-0 Östers Östers İsveç - Allsvenskan - Play-out
10.11.2022 Östers Östers 1-2 HT 1-1 Varbergs Varbergs İsveç - Allsvenskan - Play-out
28.02.2022 Varbergs Varbergs 1-0 HT 0-0 Östers Östers İSÇK
04.03.2018 Östers Östers 2-1 HT 0-0 Varbergs Varbergs İSÇK
POST-MATCH Östers vs Varbergs
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varbergs squeezed past Östers 4-3 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Östers at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Östers and 1.33 for Varbergs.

What was the final score of Östers vs Varbergs?

Östers 3-4 Varbergs in the Sweden - Superettan on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Östers vs Varbergs?

Before kick-off our model rated a Östers win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Östers 58%, draw 19%, Varbergs 23%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Östers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Östers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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