Holstein Kiel 0-2 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.95
Over Pick
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.58
2-3
42%
1.81
4-5
21%
3.35
6+
11%
12.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.23
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
12%
7.36
X/2
13%
4.65
X/X
10%
4.75
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.74
2/X
6%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
33%
Home Win
28%
+4.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin The Market 49%
-41% / -41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.08/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.10
-29% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +49%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
307 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
14.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
14.1 Crosses 23.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Union Berlin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.60
0.88 xG 2.09
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
321 Passes 312
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.11.2019 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-0 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel HAZ
01.03.2019 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-2 HT 0-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL2
25.09.2018 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-0 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
23.01.2018 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-2 HT 2-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL2
04.08.2017 Union Berlin Union Berlin 4-3 HT 3-3 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
0-2
AWAY Union Berlin
1.37 xG 1.13
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
343 Passes 394
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 28
24 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin got the better of Holstein Kiel 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Berlin as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 48% of the ball to Union Berlin's 52%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.37 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.60 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin?

Holstein Kiel 0-2 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 33%, draw 24%, Union Berlin 43%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Berlin) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✗ Over 2.5
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