Wolfsburg 2-4 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
38%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.21
Over Pick
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
21%
4.57
2-3
41%
1.9
4-5
26%
2.88
6+
12%
8.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.57
1/2
8%
33.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
17%
4.73
X/2
9%
7.71
X/X
13%
5.43
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
21%
5.08
2/X
5%
13.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.0 — our 8% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
38%
Home Win
48%
-9.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
38%
Away Win
27%
+10.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg The Market 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen The Market 31%
-8% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
1.51/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.49
-15% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
389 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 75%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
20.6 Crosses 16.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.13 xG 1.19
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
417 Passes 311
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2024 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
05.11.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
28.01.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-1 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
06.08.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-2 HT 1-2 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
20.03.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 1-2 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
27.11.2020 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 5-3 HT 3-2 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
2-4
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.81 xG 2.04
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
305 Passes 440
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen got the better of Wolfsburg 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Werder Bremen made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 43% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 57%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.81 to 2.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wolfsburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Wolfsburg and 1.67 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen?

Wolfsburg 2-4 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolfsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 38%, draw 24%, Werder Bremen 38%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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