Cherno More Varna 1-0 Hebar 1918 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.27
Draw
24%
5.28
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.13
No
58%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
75%
-16.1pp
25%
Draw
16%
+8.3pp
17%
Away Win
9%
+7.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.2pp
58%
BTTS No
57%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Hebar 1918 EU Bookmakers 11%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
2.09/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.77
+4% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +85% / +8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
419 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Hebar 1918
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
11.11.2023 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 1-1 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
23.07.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 1-0 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 BUL1
09.04.2023 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 0-1 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
1-0
AWAY Hebar 1918
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 0
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Hebar 1918
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna squeezed past Hebar 1918 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cherno More Varna as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 62% of the ball to Hebar 1918's 38%, shots finished 10-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cherno More Varna and 0.33 for Hebar 1918.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Hebar 1918?

Cherno More Varna 1-0 Hebar 1918 in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Hebar 1918?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 59%, draw 25%, Hebar 1918 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cherno More Varna), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
20 Oct 2024
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