Arka Gdynia 2-1 Pogon Siedlce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.37
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
21%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.23
Over 2.5
61%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.48
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
28%
2.91
6+ Goals
15%
8.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
5%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
69%
-9.3pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.6pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+8.7pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-2.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 15%
-11% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.99/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.45/1.38
+7% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +35%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
414 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arka Gdynia
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
51% Ball Possession 49%
19 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
06.09.2015 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-2 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
25.07.2015 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 4-1 HT 1-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POLK
17.05.2015 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 4-4 HT 2-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
18.10.2014 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arka Gdynia
2-1
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arka Gdynia vs Pogon Siedlce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arka Gdynia squeezed past Pogon Siedlce 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arka Gdynia as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Arka Gdynia had 50% of the ball to Pogon Siedlce's 50%, shots finished 10-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Arka Gdynia had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.75 for Pogon Siedlce.

What was the final score of Arka Gdynia vs Pogon Siedlce?

Arka Gdynia 2-1 Pogon Siedlce in the Poland - 1st Division on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arka Gdynia vs Pogon Siedlce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arka Gdynia win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Arka Gdynia 60%, draw 19%, Pogon Siedlce 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arka Gdynia), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arka Gdynia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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