Polonia Warszawa 2-1 Tychy 71 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.71
6+ Goals
11%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
45%
+1.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Tychy 71 EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.69/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.59
+9% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonia Warszawa
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Tychy 71
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2023 Tychy 71 Tychy 71 1-0 HT 1-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL1
22.07.2023 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 2-3 HT 2-1 Tychy 71 Tychy 71 POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonia Warszawa
2-1
AWAY Tychy 71
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 28
5 Shots on Target 12
1 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Polonia Warszawa vs Tychy 71
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Warszawa squeezed past Tychy 71 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Polonia Warszawa as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Polonia Warszawa had 44% of the ball to Tychy 71's 56%, shots finished 15-28.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tychy 71 led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Polonia Warszawa and 2.00 for Tychy 71.

What was the final score of Polonia Warszawa vs Tychy 71?

Polonia Warszawa 2-1 Tychy 71 in the Poland - 1st Division on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonia Warszawa vs Tychy 71?

Before kick-off our model rated a Polonia Warszawa win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Polonia Warszawa 47%, draw 25%, Tychy 71 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) ✗ Under 2.5
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