Bayern Münih 5-1 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Dec 2024

📅20/12/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.25
Draw
19%
5.71
Away
19%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
3.59
Over 2.5
62%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
8.54
2-3 Goals
38%
2.36
4-5 Goals
27%
2.3
6+ Goals
15%
3.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1.38
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
24.7
X/1
13%
3.8
X/2
5%
24.7
X/X
6%
11.35
2/1
9%
19.0
2/2
8%
16.0
2/X
5%
23.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
76%
-13.3pp
19%
Draw
15%
+4.2pp
19%
Away Win
10%
+9.0pp
38%
Under 2.5
24%
+13.5pp
62%
Over 2.5
76%
-13.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 12%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
2.70/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/2.09
+34% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +128% / +30%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
501 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
40.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
21.8 Crosses 9.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
2W-2D-2L
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.70 xG 1.41
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
533 Passes 303
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.02.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
30.09.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-2 HT 2-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
12.08.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 0-3 HT 0-2 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig ALSK
20.05.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-3 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
20.01.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
30.07.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-5 HT 0-3 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih ALSK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
5-1
AWAY RB Leipzig
3.29 xG 0.46
71% Ball Possession 29%
22 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 1
645 Passes 233
91% Pass Accuracy 79%
59 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 4
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih cruised past RB Leipzig 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 71% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 29%, shots finished 22-4, expected goals 3.29 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Bayern Münih and 2.17 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs RB Leipzig?

Bayern Münih 5-1 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 62%, draw 19%, RB Leipzig 19%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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