Bayern Münih 2-1 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.89
Over 2.5
52%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.41
No
46%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.79
2-3 Goals
39%
2.16
4-5 Goals
24%
2.48
6+ Goals
14%
5.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.21
1/2
4%
33.0
1/X
8%
13.5
X/1
10%
4.64
X/2
15%
8.96
X/X
8%
6.8
2/1
5%
18.95
2/2
13%
5.4
2/X
9%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.7pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.8pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
31%
+16.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
69%
-16.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
67%
-12.5pp
46%
BTTS No
33%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 29%
+9% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +2%
2.14/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.27
+34% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +60% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
19.6 Crosses 12.9
0.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
2W-2D-2L
AWAY RB Leipzig
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.96 xG 1.64
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
533 Passes 298
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-2 HT 2-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
12.08.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 0-3 HT 0-2 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig ALSK
20.05.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-3 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
20.01.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
30.07.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-5 HT 0-3 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih ALSK
05.02.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-2 HT 2-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
2-1
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.54 xG 0.88
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
546 Passes 398
90% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih squeezed past RB Leipzig 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 56% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 44%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.54 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bayern Münih and 2.33 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs RB Leipzig?

Bayern Münih 2-1 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 44%, draw 25%, RB Leipzig 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
24 Feb 2024
17:30 Union Berlin vs Heidenheim Analysis →
17:30 Mönchengladbach vs Bochum Analysis →
17:30 Werder Bremen vs Darmstadt 98 Analysis →
17:30 Stuttgart vs Köln Analysis →