Union Berlin 2-2 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 24 Feb 2024

Union Berlin
2-2 HT 2-1
Heidenheim
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Union Berlin vs Heidenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.08
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.8
6+ Goals
12%
16.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.8 — our 24% vs market 21.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.44
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.15
X/1
20%
4.12
X/2
6%
8.33
X/X
6%
4.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
25.5
2/2
10%
6.55
2/X
12%
14.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
51%
+2.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
23%
Away Win
23%
-0.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.0pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Berlin v Heidenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 26%
+16% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +40% / +40%
1.52/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.34
+14% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +71%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
392 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 68%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
21.5 Crosses 16.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5

Union Berlin vs Heidenheim Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Heidenheim
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.07 xG 0.99
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
354 Passes 262
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
19.10.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AFK
15.03.2019 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 0-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL2
07.10.2018 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
21.04.2018 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
18.11.2017 Heidenheim Heidenheim 4-3 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL2

Union Berlin 2-2 Heidenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
2-2
AWAY Heidenheim
1.05 xG 1.12
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
392 Passes 251
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
24 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin and Heidenheim couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Union Berlin at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 58% of the ball to Heidenheim's 42%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.05 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidenheim led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Union Berlin and 1.50 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Heidenheim?

Union Berlin 2-2 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 53%, draw 24%, Heidenheim 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Union Berlin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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