Newport City 3-1 Caerau (Ely) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 20 Dec 2024

Newport City
3-1 HT 2-1
Caerau (Ely)
📅20/12/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2024/2025

Newport City vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
65%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.49
No
45%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
25%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 65% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
33%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
43%
Away Win
43%
+0.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.2pp
45%
BTTS No
37%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport City v Caerau (Ely) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport City EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 48%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
0.00/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/2.32
-100% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -30%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
270 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Newport City vs Caerau (Ely) Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport City
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Caerau (Ely)
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
The Meetings
16.08.2024 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 1-2 HT 1-1 Newport City Newport City GALFAW
POST-MATCH Newport City vs Caerau (Ely)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport City saw off Caerau (Ely) 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was Caerau (Ely) at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

What was the final score of Newport City vs Caerau (Ely)?

Newport City 3-1 Caerau (Ely) in the Wales - FAW Championship on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport City vs Caerau (Ely)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Newport City 31%, draw 26%, Caerau (Ely) 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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