Caerau (Ely) 1-2 Newport City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 16 Aug 2024

Caerau (Ely)
1-2 HT 1-1
Newport City
📅16/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2024/2025

Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
29%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.61
Over 2.5
62%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.39
No
39%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
43%
+3.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
33%
-4.0pp
38%
Under 2.5
35%
+3.4pp
62%
Over 2.5
65%
-3.4pp
61%
BTTS Yes
68%
-7.0pp
39%
BTTS No
32%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caerau (Ely) v Newport City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport City EU Bookmakers 37%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
2.72/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+42% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +69%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
334 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport City edged past Caerau (Ely) 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Caerau (Ely) at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City?

Caerau (Ely) 1-2 Newport City in the Wales - FAW Championship on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Caerau (Ely) 47%, draw 24%, Newport City 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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