Leixoes vs Mafra Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Leixoes v Mafra — Team-Based Signals
Leixoes vs Mafra Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Leixoes
POR2
0-2
HT 0-1
Mafra
POR2
1-1
HT 0-1
Leixoes
POR2
0-2
HT 0-0
Leixoes
POR2
2-0
HT 0-0
Mafra
POR2
Leixoes 2-1 Mafra — Actual Match Statistics
Leixoes nicked a narrow win over Mafra 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leixoes as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Leixoes had 62% of the ball to Mafra's 38%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.27 to 2.12 — on chances, Mafra could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leixoes had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Leixoes and 0.67 for Mafra.
What was the final score of Leixoes vs Mafra?
Leixoes 2-1 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Leixoes vs Mafra?
Before kick-off our model rated a Leixoes win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Leixoes 43%, draw 28%, Mafra 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leixoes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.