Casa Pia 3-1 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 20 Dec 2024

📅20/12/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.51
Over 2.5
39%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
5.21
6+ Goals
8%
33.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.41
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
17%
4.75
X/2
9%
6.4
X/X
17%
3.56
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
15%
5.22
2/X
7%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.7pp
31%
Draw
31%
-0.2pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.2pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.14/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.25
-29% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
19.5 Crosses 18.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Arouca
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.97 xG 0.95
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
322 Passes 388
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.02.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
17.09.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
25.02.2023 Arouca Arouca 2-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
04.09.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
09.05.2021 Arouca Arouca 2-1 HT 1-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR2
10.01.2021 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-1 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
3-1
AWAY Arouca
0.91 xG 0.68
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
270 Passes 386
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 12
10 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia saw off Arouca 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Casa Pia made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Casa Pia had 42% of the ball to Arouca's 58%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.91 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Casa Pia and 0.83 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Arouca?

Casa Pia 3-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 39%, draw 31%, Arouca 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Casa Pia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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