Casa Pia vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Casa Pia v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Casa Pia vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Casa Pia
POR
2-0
HT 0-0
Casa Pia
POR
0-0
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
2-1
HT 1-1
Casa Pia
POR2
1-1
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR2
Casa Pia 3-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Casa Pia saw off Arouca 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Casa Pia made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Casa Pia had 42% of the ball to Arouca's 58%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.91 to 0.68.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Casa Pia and 0.83 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Casa Pia 3-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 39%, draw 31%, Arouca 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Casa Pia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.