Casa Pia vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Casa Pia v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Casa Pia vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Casa Pia
POR
2-0
HT 0-0
Casa Pia
POR
0-0
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
2-1
HT 1-1
Casa Pia
POR2
1-1
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR2
Casa Pia 1-0 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Casa Pia squeezed past Arouca 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Casa Pia made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
On the day, Casa Pia had 34% of the ball to Arouca's 66%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.18 to 0.95.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Casa Pia and 1.00 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Casa Pia 1-0 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 32%, draw 28%, Arouca 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Arouca) went the other way.