Estoril 1-3 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.33
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.47
6+ Goals
11%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 30% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.02
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
18%
4.81
X/2
14%
6.47
X/X
12%
4.55
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
13%
4.58
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.0pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -28%
1.27/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.37
+24% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
317 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
17.6 Crosses 17.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 1.51
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
305 Passes 364
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.09.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 5-3 HT 3-0 Estoril Estoril POR
31.03.2023 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
07.10.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
04.03.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
03.10.2021 Estoril Estoril 2-2 HT 2-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
08.03.2015 Estoril Estoril 1-1 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
1-3
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.80 xG 2.28
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
319 Passes 312
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente saw off Estoril 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Estoril at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Estoril had 50% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 50%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.80 to 2.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estoril had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Estoril and 1.33 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Gil Vicente?

Estoril 1-3 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Estoril 42%, draw 26%, Gil Vicente 32%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estoril) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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