Sporting Braga 2-1 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.43
Over 2.5
53%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.13
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals
28%
2.69
6+ Goals
12%
6.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.8
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
16.35
X/1
20%
3.82
X/2
5%
12.0
X/X
10%
6.86
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
19.55
2/2
10%
8.41
2/X
7%
16.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.55 — our 7% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
62%
-3.5pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.2pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+2.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.9pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
2.07/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.50
-9% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -36%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
432 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 73%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
24.4 Crosses 17.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Farense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.18 xG 2.09
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
410 Passes 198
79% Pass Accuracy 68%
33 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2023 Farense Farense 3-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
05.04.2021 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 1-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
29.11.2020 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
22.11.2015 Farense Farense 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK
27.01.2002 Farense Farense 2-2 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
26.08.2001 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 4-0 HT 2-0 Farense Farense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
2-1
AWAY Farense
3.17 xG 0.47
63% Ball Possession 37%
21 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
492 Passes 254
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
41 Box Touches 7
46 Crosses 15
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga nicked a narrow win over Farense 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 63% of the ball to Farense's 37%, shots finished 21-4, expected goals 3.17 to 0.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting Braga's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.00 for Farense.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Farense?

Sporting Braga 2-1 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 59%, draw 22%, Farense 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
18 Feb 2024
18:30 Casa Pia vs Arouca Analysis →
21:00 Estoril vs Gil Vicente Analysis →
21:00 Benfica vs Vizela Analysis →