Pontivy 0-1 Bastia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 20 Dec 2025

Pontivy
0-1 HT 0-0
Bastia
📅20/12/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
France - Cup – 2025/2026

Pontivy vs Bastia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
54%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.8
Over 2.5
54%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.76
No
43%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2.98
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.63
6+ Goals
10%
15.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.63 — our 25% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
4%
X/2
27%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
15%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
27%
-7.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
54%
Away Win
47%
+7.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.3pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pontivy v Bastia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pontivy EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Bastia EU Bookmakers 50%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -87% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
303 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Pontivy vs Bastia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bastia edged past Pontivy 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bastia as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Pontivy vs Bastia?

Pontivy 0-1 Bastia in the France - Cup on 20/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pontivy vs Bastia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bastia win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Pontivy 20%, draw 26%, Bastia 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bastia) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bastia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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