Lugano 2-3 Stade Ouchy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.07
Over 2.5
45%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.17
6+ Goals
8%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.73 — our 30% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.11
1/2
6%
48.5
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
15%
3.96
X/2
9%
9.89
X/X
15%
5.35
2/1
5%
22.6
2/2
13%
7.48
2/X
6%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-11.0pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.4pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Stade Ouchy EU Bookmakers 23%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.62/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.20
-8% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
19.1 Crosses 10.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Stade Ouchy
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.37 xG 1.05
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
474 Passes 326
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.07.2023 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 0-3 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
2-3
AWAY Stade Ouchy
2.68 xG 1.03
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
424 Passes 231
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
37 Box Touches 10
29 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Stade Ouchy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stade Ouchy edged past Lugano 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lugano at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lugano had 62% of the ball to Stade Ouchy's 38%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 2.68 to 1.03 — on chances, Lugano could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Stade Ouchy?

Lugano 2-3 Stade Ouchy in the Switzerland - Super League on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Stade Ouchy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lugano 45%, draw 28%, Stade Ouchy 27%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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İSV More Switzerland - Super League
21 Jan 2024
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