Bayern Münih 0-1 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Jan 2024

Bayern Münih
0-1 HT 0-0
Werder Bremen
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 4-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Bayern Münih vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.78
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
31%
4.0
Over 2.5
69%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
10.85
2-3 Goals
32%
2.64
4-5 Goals
32%
2.31
6+ Goals
20%
3.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1.15
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
5%
34.0
X/1
17%
3.72
X/2
5%
34.0
X/X
7%
16.85
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.15
2/2
5%
34.0
2/X
6%
34.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.15 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
82%
-15.1pp
18%
Draw
10%
+7.9pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+7.2pp
31%
Under 2.5
22%
+9.5pp
69%
Over 2.5
78%
-9.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.2pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayern Münih v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
2.85/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/2.33
+40% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +17%
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
530 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 74%
43.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
22.3 Crosses 11.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Bayern Münih vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.67 xG 0.94
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
580 Passes 277
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
39 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.08.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-4 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
06.05.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
08.11.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 6-1 HT 4-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
13.03.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-3 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
21.11.2020 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
16.06.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1

Bayern Münih 0-1 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
0-1
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.92 xG 0.43
68% Ball Possession 32%
22 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
620 Passes 248
90% Pass Accuracy 77%
43 Box Touches 20
28 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen squeezed past Bayern Münih 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Bayern Münih carried 67% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (69%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 68% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 32%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 1.92 to 0.43 — on chances, Bayern Münih could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Bayern Münih and 0.67 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Werder Bremen?

Bayern Münih 0-1 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 67%, draw 18%, Werder Bremen 14%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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