21/01/2024
·
02:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-2
2nd Score
2-1
Nova Mutum EC vs Mixto Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
Over Pick
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Total Goals
0-1
20%
2-3
38%
4-5
23%
6+
19%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
3%
2/2
38%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
31%
Home Win
24%
21%
Draw
20%
48%
Away Win
57%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nova Mutum EC v Mixto — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Nova Mutum EC
The Market 27%
Head to Head
AWAY
Mixto
The Market 61%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
45%
Ball Possession
55%
11
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Target
6
4
Corners
5
322 · 80%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
414 · 85%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
Nova Mutum EC vs Mixto Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Nova Mutum EC
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Mixto
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
46%
Ball Possession
54%
17
Total Shots
16
9
Shots on Target
8
3
Corners
7
3
Yellow Cards
3
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Nova Mutum EC vs Mixto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Mixto edged past Nova Mutum EC 1-0 away from home.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mixto as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Nova Mutum EC vs Mixto?
Nova Mutum EC 0-1 Mixto in the Brazil - Matogrossense on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nova Mutum EC vs Mixto?
Before kick-off our model rated an Mixto win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Nova Mutum EC 31%, draw 21%, Mixto 48%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mixto) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Mixto)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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BRMAT
More Brazil - Matogrossense
21 Jan 2024