21/01/2024
·
00:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
1-0
Melgar vs Bolivar Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
Over 2.5
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
11%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
37%
Draw
30%
27%
Away Win
36%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melgar v Bolivar — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Melgar
EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY
Bolivar
EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
50%
Ball Possession
50%
12
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
5
329 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
370 · 77%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Melgar vs Bolivar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Melgar and Bolivar shared the points in a 1-1 draw.
Our pre-match split (36% / 37% / 27%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.
What was the final score of Melgar vs Bolivar?
Melgar 1-1 Bolivar in the Friendlies on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melgar vs Bolivar?
Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Melgar 36%, draw 37%, Bolivar 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Draw), Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Draw)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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HAZ
More Friendlies
21 Jan 2024