Birkirkara 1-2 Santa Lucia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
65%
-6.8pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.3pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.9pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birkirkara EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Lucia EU Bookmakers 17%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.30/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.94
-17% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -24%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
444 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birkirkara
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Santa Lucia
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
28.01.2023 Birkirkara Birkirkara 2-0 HT 1-0 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia MLTP
11.09.2022 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia 0-4 HT 0-0 Birkirkara Birkirkara MLTP
27.02.2022 Birkirkara Birkirkara 2-3 HT 0-1 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia MLTP
21.11.2021 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia 2-0 HT 2-0 Birkirkara Birkirkara MLTP
26.07.2018 Birkirkara Birkirkara 1-0 HT 1-1 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birkirkara
1-2
AWAY Santa Lucia
61% Ball Possession 39%
9 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
15 Corners 1
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Birkirkara vs Santa Lucia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Lucia edged past Birkirkara 2-1 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Birkirkara carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Birkirkara had 61% of the ball to Santa Lucia's 39%, shots finished 9-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Birkirkara had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Birkirkara and 1.00 for Santa Lucia.

What was the final score of Birkirkara vs Santa Lucia?

Birkirkara 1-2 Santa Lucia in the Malta - Premier League on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birkirkara vs Santa Lucia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birkirkara win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Birkirkara 59%, draw 21%, Santa Lucia 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Birkirkara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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