Leyton Orient 0-1 Stevenage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 21 Jan 2025

📅21/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
21.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.86
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
23%
4.52
X/2
8%
7.19
X/X
14%
4.08
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
10%
5.84
2/X
6%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+1.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.6pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leyton Orient EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Stevenage EU Bookmakers 29%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.75/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.01
-13% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -71% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
269 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 65%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
13.2 Crosses 18.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leyton Orient
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Stevenage
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.53 xG 0.76
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
230 Passes 165
60% Pass Accuracy 56%
14 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Stevenage Stevenage 0-0 HT 0-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN1
16.03.2024 Stevenage Stevenage 0-1 HT 0-1 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN1
02.09.2023 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-3 HT 0-2 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
21.01.2023 Stevenage Stevenage 3-0 HT 2-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
27.12.2022 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-0 HT 0-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
05.03.2022 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2-2 HT 1-2 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leyton Orient
0-1
AWAY Stevenage
0.35 xG 0.67
70% Ball Possession 30%
8 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
515 Passes 148
84% Pass Accuracy 57%
15 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Leyton Orient vs Stevenage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stevenage nicked a narrow win over Leyton Orient 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Leyton Orient at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Leyton Orient had 70% of the ball to Stevenage's 30%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.35 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stevenage led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Leyton Orient and 1.33 for Stevenage.

What was the final score of Leyton Orient vs Stevenage?

Leyton Orient 0-1 Stevenage in the England - Futbol League Cup on 21/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leyton Orient vs Stevenage?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leyton Orient win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Leyton Orient 48%, draw 26%, Stevenage 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Leyton Orient) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leyton Orient) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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