AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 21 Jan 2026

AZ Alkmaar
1-1 HT 0-0
Excelsior
📅21/01/2026 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.37
Draw
18%
4.62
Away
12%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.25
2-3 Goals
37%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.64
6+ Goals
14%
6.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.61
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
18.3
X/1
27%
4.04
X/2
3%
15.9
X/X
6%
7.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
20.0
2/2
5%
12.5
2/X
6%
20.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.0 — our 13% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
69%
+1.3pp
18%
Draw
19%
-0.6pp
12%
Away Win
13%
-0.8pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+3.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-3.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 16%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +2%
2.29/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/2.10
-5% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -15%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
417 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
37.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
19.3 Crosses 12.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Excelsior
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.01 xG 0.95
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
464 Passes 304
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.03.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-0 HT 3-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
04.11.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
10.02.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 5-0 HT 5-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
11.01.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 1-4 HT 1-3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOK
23.10.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 2-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
15.05.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 4-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL

AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-1
AWAY Excelsior
2.16 xG 1.12
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
522 Passes 308
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. AZ Alkmaar carried 70% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 60% of the ball to Excelsior's 40%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 2.16 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.33 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?

AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 70%, draw 18%, Excelsior 12%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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