Esteghlal Khuzestan 3-2 Aluminium Arak — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League, 21 Feb 2024

📅21/02/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.32
Draw
29%
2.66
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.26
Over 2.5
38%
3.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.67
No
58%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
1.67
2-3 Goals
46%
2.0
4-5 Goals
14%
9.56
6+ Goals
5%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
17%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.6pp
29%
Draw
34%
-5.2pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+1.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
76%
-14.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
24%
+14.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
33%
+9.1pp
58%
BTTS No
67%
-9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esteghlal Khuzestan EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Aluminium Arak EU Bookmakers 43%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.03/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/0.42
+39% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +75%
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esteghlal Khuzestan
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Aluminium Arak
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
27.10.2023 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 HT 1-0 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRAN
15.08.2023 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak 1-0 HT 0-0 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
07.04.2023 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak 0-1 HT 0-0 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
21.10.2022 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 0-0 HT 0-0 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRAN
19.05.2022 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 0-0 HT 0-0 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRAN
03.01.2022 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak 1-1 HT 0-1 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
POST-MATCH Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esteghlal Khuzestan edged past Aluminium Arak 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aluminium Arak at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Esteghlal Khuzestan had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Esteghlal Khuzestan and 0.33 for Aluminium Arak.

What was the final score of Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak?

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3-2 Aluminium Arak in the Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on 21/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aluminium Arak win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Esteghlal Khuzestan 30%, draw 29%, Aluminium Arak 41%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aluminium Arak) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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