Necaxa 1-0 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 21 Feb 2024

Necaxa
1-0 HT 1-0
Guadalajara
📅21/02/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Necaxa vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.1
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.77
6+ Goals
10%
16.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 29% vs market 26.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+2.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
41%
Away Win
44%
-2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Necaxa v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.12/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/0.98
+11% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
284 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 79%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
19.5 Crosses 17.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Necaxa vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.86 xG 1.45
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
244 Passes 349
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.07.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
09.04.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
20.08.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-4 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
30.04.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
29.08.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
14.02.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-2 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK

Necaxa 1-0 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
1-0
AWAY Guadalajara
1.60 xG 0.73
28% Ball Possession 72%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 11
123 Passes 390
65% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 24
9 Crosses 35
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa nicked a narrow win over Guadalajara 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Guadalajara at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Necaxa had 28% of the ball to Guadalajara's 72%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.60 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Necaxa and 2.00 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Guadalajara?

Necaxa 1-0 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 21/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 31%, draw 28%, Guadalajara 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Guadalajara) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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