Puebla 1-4 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 21 Feb 2024

Puebla
1-4 HT 1-1
Pachuca
📅21/02/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Puebla vs Pachuca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.46
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
41%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.51
Over 2.5
64%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.49
No
40%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.68
6+ Goals
13%
6.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
25%
+11.9pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.7pp
41%
Away Win
52%
-10.2pp
36%
Under 2.5
36%
-0.4pp
64%
Over 2.5
64%
+0.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
63%
-3.1pp
40%
BTTS No
37%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Pachuca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 56%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
1.15/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/1.26
+4% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +16%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 81%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
17.1 Crosses 18.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Puebla vs Pachuca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pachuca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.18 xG 1.64
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
226 Passes 272
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
10.01.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 5-1 HT 2-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
08.09.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
20.04.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
02.10.2021 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
13.04.2021 Pachuca Pachuca 1-3 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK

Puebla 1-4 Pachuca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
1-4
AWAY Pachuca
0.27 xG 2.26
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 10
7 Corners 5
271 Passes 283
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 37
22 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca ran out comfortable winners over Puebla 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 22% / 41% — and on the day Pachuca made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Puebla had 51% of the ball to Pachuca's 49%, shots finished 8-21, expected goals 0.27 to 2.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Puebla and 2.00 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Pachuca?

Puebla 1-4 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 21/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Puebla 37%, draw 22%, Pachuca 41%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
21 Feb 2024
06:00 Necaxa vs Guadalajara Analysis →