Penafiel 3-0 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 21 Feb 2025

Penafiel
3-0 HT 3-0
Portimonense
📅21/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Penafiel vs Portimonense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
3.64
6+ Goals
10%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 30% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+2.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.6pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Penafiel v Portimonense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 38%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +13%
1.27/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.44
-21% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
293 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.6 Crosses 11.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Penafiel vs Portimonense Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Portimonense
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.95 xG 1.06
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
161 Passes 392
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Crosses 35
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Portimonense Portimonense 0-2 HT 0-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
19.11.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 0-3 HT 0-3 Portimonense Portimonense POK
09.12.2015 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 1-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
23.09.2015 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 0-1 Portimonense Portimonense PORLC
16.02.2014 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR2

Penafiel 3-0 Portimonense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
3-0
AWAY Portimonense
1.67 xG 0.74
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
170 Passes 227
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
9 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel ran out comfortable winners over Portimonense 3-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Penafiel found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Penafiel had 48% of the ball to Portimonense's 52%, shots finished 6-6, expected goals 1.67 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Portimonense led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Penafiel and 1.20 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Portimonense?

Penafiel 3-0 Portimonense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 21/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portimonense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 35%, draw 28%, Portimonense 38%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Portimonense), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Portimonense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →