Portimonense 0-2 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 28 Sep 2024

Portimonense
0-2 HT 0-1
Penafiel
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Portimonense vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.59
6+ Goals
11%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 31% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.8pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Portimonense v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portimonense EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
0.82/2.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.41
-56% / -50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
27.0 Crosses 18.4
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Portimonense vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portimonense
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Penafiel
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.11.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 0-3 HT 0-3 Portimonense Portimonense POK
09.12.2015 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 1-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
23.09.2015 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 0-1 Portimonense Portimonense PORLC
16.02.2014 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR2

Portimonense 0-2 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portimonense
0-2
AWAY Penafiel
1.06 xG 1.95
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
392 Passes 161
85% Pass Accuracy 70%
35 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portimonense vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel beat Portimonense 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Portimonense at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Portimonense had 62% of the ball to Penafiel's 38%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 1.06 to 1.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Portimonense had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Portimonense and 0.50 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Portimonense vs Penafiel?

Portimonense 0-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portimonense win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 42%, draw 28%, Penafiel 30%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Portimonense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Portimonense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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