Sporting Braga 1-0 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Feb 2025

Sporting Braga
1-0 HT 1-0
Nacional
📅21/02/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Sporting Braga vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
16%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.37
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.31
6+ Goals
11%
12.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.31 — our 26% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.93
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.7
X/1
22%
3.96
X/2
6%
11.45
X/X
10%
5.5
2/1
10%
23.0
2/2
6%
9.59
2/X
6%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
61%
+1.1pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.1pp
16%
Away Win
16%
+0.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Braga v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -20%
2.04/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.52
+5% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
374 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
24.9 Crosses 19.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.2

Sporting Braga vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Nacional
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.21 xG 0.92
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
491 Passes 275
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.09.2024 Nacional Nacional 0-3 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
22.12.2023 Nacional Nacional 1-3 HT 0-3 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga PORLC
25.04.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-2 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POK
12.04.2023 Nacional Nacional 0-5 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK
28.02.2021 Nacional Nacional 1-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
17.10.2020 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-1 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR

Sporting Braga 1-0 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
1-0
AWAY Nacional
1.30 xG 0.25
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
388 Passes 285
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga edged past Nacional 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 55% of the ball to Nacional's 45%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.30 to 0.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.83 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Nacional?

Sporting Braga 1-0 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 62%, draw 22%, Nacional 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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