HJK Helsinki 3-1 TPS Turku — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 21 Feb 2026

📅21/02/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.18
Draw
19%
6.26
Away
14%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.89
Over 2.5
54%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.93
2-3 Goals
40%
2.03
4-5 Goals
24%
2.41
6+ Goals
12%
5.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
79%
-12.0pp
19%
Draw
12%
+6.6pp
14%
Away Win
8%
+5.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
31%
+14.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
69%
-14.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 11%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
2.39/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/3.00
+0% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -26%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
428 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
5W-1D-0L
AWAY TPS Turku
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
24.09.2020 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-2 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
22.07.2020 TPS Turku TPS Turku 0-2 HT 0-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
23.06.2020 TPS Turku TPS Turku 0-1 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİK
25.01.2020 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-0 HT 2-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİK
27.10.2018 TPS Turku TPS Turku 0-4 HT 0-2 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
14.07.2018 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
3-1
AWAY TPS Turku
78% Ball Possession 22%
16 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
16 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs TPS Turku
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki beat TPS Turku 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 78% of the ball to TPS Turku's 22%, shots finished 16-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for HJK Helsinki and 0.50 for TPS Turku.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs TPS Turku?

HJK Helsinki 3-1 TPS Turku in the Finland - League Cup on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs TPS Turku?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 67%, draw 19%, TPS Turku 14%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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