Jubilo Iwata 1-2 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — JAP2-3, 21 Feb 2026

Jubilo Iwata
1-2 HT 0-1
Matsumoto Yamaga
📅21/02/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
JAP2-3 – 2026

Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.82
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.85
2-3 Goals
44%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
8%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 28% vs market 27.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
51%
+2.5pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.5pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.9pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jubilo Iwata v Matsumoto Yamaga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -31%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
311 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 69%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses 14.0
– Yellow Cards 1.0

Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jubilo Iwata
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.80 xG 1.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
298 Passes 196
73% Pass Accuracy 64%
22 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.06.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 5-2 HT 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JPK
04.09.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-4 HT 0-1 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
10.04.2021 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 4-1 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
10.10.2020 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
08.08.2020 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-1 HT 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
13.07.2019 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP

Jubilo Iwata 1-2 Matsumoto Yamaga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jubilo Iwata
1-2
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
72% Ball Possession 28%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 2
489 Passes 146
81% Pass Accuracy 62%
29 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga edged past Jubilo Iwata 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Jubilo Iwata at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Jubilo Iwata had 72% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 28%, shots finished 13-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jubilo Iwata had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Jubilo Iwata and 0.67 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

What was the final score of Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Jubilo Iwata 1-2 Matsumoto Yamaga in the JAP2-3 on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jubilo Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jubilo Iwata win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Jubilo Iwata 53%, draw 22%, Matsumoto Yamaga 25%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jubilo Iwata), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jubilo Iwata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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