Aucas vs El Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aucas v El Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Aucas vs El Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-2
Aucas
EKV1
0-2
HT 0-1
El Nacional
EKV1
2-2
HT 0-1
Aucas
EKV1
2-0
HT 1-0
El Nacional
EKV1
0-0
HT 0-0
El Nacional
EKV1
1-3
HT 1-3
Aucas
EKV1
Aucas 3-4 El Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
El Nacional edged past Aucas 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Aucas at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Aucas had 55% of the ball to El Nacional's 45%, shots finished 19-18, expected goals 2.37 to 0.91 — on chances, Aucas could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aucas and 1.17 for El Nacional.
What was the final score of Aucas vs El Nacional?
Aucas 3-4 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 21/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aucas vs El Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Aucas 52%, draw 22%, El Nacional 25%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Aucas), BTTS No went the other way.