21/03/2024
·
00:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-0
Orsomarso vs Envigado Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
23%
37%
Draw
26%
34%
Away Win
50%
67%
Under 2.5
56%
33%
Over 2.5
44%
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
49%
BTTS No
54%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Orsomarso v Envigado — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Orsomarso
EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY
Envigado
EU Bookmakers 55%
+18% /
+18%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+34% /
+34%
0.74/0.38
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
2.00/1.00
-24%
/
+150%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+104%
/
+8%
45%
Ball Possession
55%
10
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
4
245 · 70%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
323 · 74%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
1.0
Yellow Cards
–
Orsomarso vs Envigado Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Orsomarso
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Envigado
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Orsomarso vs Envigado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Envigado squeezed past Orsomarso 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match split (28% / 37% / 34%) promised a tight game; Envigado found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Orsomarso vs Envigado?
Orsomarso 0-1 Envigado in the Colombia - Cup on 21/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Orsomarso vs Envigado?
Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Orsomarso 28%, draw 37%, Envigado 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Draw), BTTS Yes went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Draw)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
KOLK
More Colombia - Cup
21 Mar 2024