Burgos vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Burgos v Almeria — Team-Based Signals
Burgos vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-2
Almeria
İS2
2-0
HT 1-0
Burgos
İS2
Burgos 3-1 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics
Burgos got the better of Almeria 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Burgos found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Burgos had 44% of the ball to Almeria's 56%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 1.03 to 0.82.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Almeria led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Burgos and 2.00 for Almeria.
What was the final score of Burgos vs Almeria?
Burgos 3-1 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 21/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Burgos vs Almeria?
Before kick-off our model rated an Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Burgos 34%, draw 28%, Almeria 38%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.