Almeria 2-0 Burgos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.87 — our 28% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.14
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
21%
4.02
X/2
13%
9.65
X/X
10%
5.45
2/1
6%
22.3
2/2
8%
7.23
2/X
8%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.7pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Burgos EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +14%
1.83/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.34
+19% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
357 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 72%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
17.5 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Burgos
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.15 xG 1.12
66% Ball Possession 34%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
473 Passes 182
84% Pass Accuracy 65%
23 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
30.04.2022 Burgos Burgos 0-2 HT 0-2 Almeria Almeria İS2
07.11.2021 Almeria Almeria 2-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
2-0
AWAY Burgos
2.43 xG 1.46
39% Ball Possession 61%
17 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
224 Passes 395
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Burgos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria saw off Burgos 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Almeria as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Almeria had 39% of the ball to Burgos's 61%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 2.43 to 1.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Almeria had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Almeria and 0.00 for Burgos.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Burgos?

Almeria 2-0 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Burgos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Almeria 49%, draw 25%, Burgos 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almeria), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ BTTS No
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