Eibar 1-3 Sporting Gijon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.15
6+ Goals
9%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 32% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.6
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
14%
4.33
X/2
8%
8.23
X/X
9%
4.06
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
9%
6.53
2/X
11%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
48%
+1.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+0.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.9pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eibar EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
1.31/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.35
+10% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
23.1 Crosses 16.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eibar
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sporting Gijon
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.41 xG 1.02
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
426 Passes 279
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.08.2024 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-1 HT 1-0 Eibar Eibar HAZ
26.05.2024 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 1-0 HT 0-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
20.12.2023 Eibar Eibar 1-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
20.05.2023 Eibar Eibar 2-2 HT 0-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
17.10.2022 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-0 HT 1-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
05.02.2022 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 0-1 HT 0-1 Eibar Eibar İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eibar
1-3
AWAY Sporting Gijon
1.66 xG 1.60
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
449 Passes 265
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Eibar vs Sporting Gijon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Gijon saw off Eibar 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Eibar at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Eibar had 61% of the ball to Sporting Gijon's 39%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.66 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Gijon led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Eibar and 1.33 for Sporting Gijon.

What was the final score of Eibar vs Sporting Gijon?

Eibar 1-3 Sporting Gijon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eibar vs Sporting Gijon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eibar win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Eibar 50%, draw 27%, Sporting Gijon 24%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Eibar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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