CA Penarol 0-3 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 21 Mar 2025

📅21/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.44/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.00
-12% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +38%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
401 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
10.11.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
03.05.2024 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-2 HT 2-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
17.12.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
13.12.2023 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
10.12.2023 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 0-1 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
06.11.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
0-3
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 5
13 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) ran out comfortable winners over CA Penarol 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was CA Penarol at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 55% of the ball to Liverpool FC (Montevideo)'s 45%, shots finished 17-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for CA Penarol and 1.00 for Liverpool FC (Montevideo).

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

CA Penarol 0-3 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 51%, draw 25%, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 24%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (CA Penarol), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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